August 9, 2012 - Postmarket

And yet again, the market moved absolutely nowhere but forward in time.

The easiest thing to assume is that a fourth-wave triangle of some sort is shaping up.  If so, we're in a bit of a time crunch.  At the latest, we will hit the apex early Tuesday morning (before 11 a.m.); at the earliest we hit it tomorrow at the close.

Odds are this is a fourth wave, and a fifth-wave push up will be necessary.  The operative question is whether or not this triangle is the 4th wave entirely or just the B wave of the 4th wave.  In the former case we should go up in wave 5 immediately; in the latter case there should be a C of 4 down before we go up in wave 5 to ~1411.

We do, however, have to consider the possibility that we have already topped, and are simply in a convoluted topping process (which, all things considered, is pretty normal - U shaped tops and V shaped bottoms). 

There are several indicators supporting the idea of an imminent or already-occurred top - the Dow Industrials and the Dow Transports both had red candles today (the $TRAN is in its second day of red, and generally seems to be weaker than the other indices... and it's typically construed as a leading indicator).  The red line of the daily stochastics on the SPX, Industrials, and Transports has now pulled even with the black line.