Thursday, August 16, 2012

August 16, 2012 - Postmarket

The market actually did something.  It moved up.


Previous posts had indicated that this barely-moving morass of tiny candles was a fourth wave of some sort.  It now appears we have finally broken resistance, and are in Subminuette wave "v" of (c) of [b].

The placement of Micro [3] of "v" at the HOD may be somewhat premature - it is possible Micro [3] could really just be Submicro (3) of [3].  On the other hand, the triangular nature of the 4th wave becomes clearer now in retrospect.

Determining the target for "v" is tricky, and is, of course, top-calling.  The Nasdaq Composite appears to be trying to fill its final unfilled gap at 3095, which would be done with another 1.06% up from the close.  A similar move in the SPX would equate to 1430, though again it would probably be lower because the SPX moves are typically more muted than the Nasdaq's.  5=1 on the $COMPQ equates to 3140 or thereabouts, a 2.53% up move from today's close.  This would equate to SPX 1451, if the SPX rises by a similar amount.

Looking just at the SPX in itself, if 5=1 then wave [5] should be 12.21 SPX points, which equates to 1427.72 if we closed at the end of wave [4] of "v" (which I doubt).  If wave [4] ends lower, then of course the target would be lower.

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