As you may have heard, there was a shooting massacre at a movie theater in Aurora, CO last night. The death toll appears to be a confirmed 12 (consensus of Business Insider, FOX News, CNN, Bloomberg, and Reuters).
This is a tragedy, of course, but I don't think it can be entirely, if at all, attributable to social mood. The market has just risen for several days; at the very least it is near the top of a countertrend correction, and (if the permabulls are right) the peak of just one of many bull waves. And, of course, there is the counterargument of Columbine, which happened on April 20, 1999 - in the midst of a roaring, indisputable bull market.
Still, the attack was obviously premeditated. The shooter employed tear gas and four weapons (when not licensed to own one), one of which was a semiautomatic. I don't think very many people carry around four guns with them.
And indeed, Columbine itself had been under planning for at least two years, with the guns used in the attack purchased five months prior to the attacks (Wikipedia article on the Columbine shooting). It wouldn't be entirely unreasonable to suggest that this recent massacre could date as far back as at least the 2010 summer doldrums if not the 2009 social mood low (or at least, the idea might have arisen then).
As the suspected perpetrator is in custody, there is a decent chance we will learn more about the motives to this attack as the investigation unwinds. The perpetrators of Columbine committed suicide immediately after their attack, rendering investigation of motives considerably more difficult.
In other words, I believe premeditated shootings, like wars, tend more to be manifestations of past negative social mood rather than current negative social mood. The question is - which downturn(s)?
