Today's consolidation had the effect of breaking out of the acceleration channel even drawn as liberally as possible, which suggests we probably are in the wave 4 of the up move now, or that the move is already over. If it is over, obviously the next move is down huge; ideally for the bears we would want to see a weekly engulfing red candle.
If we still need a wave 5, then as it appears we have completed a wave A and B of 4, I would expect a wave C down at the open to the blue line in the low 1370s, followed by a "central bank rally" to the major black-line resistance at ~1394 on August 1. This would set up a doji on the monthly for July as well.
It is possible we are essentially repeating the June 4-19 rally. If so, then today was the equivalent of June 7 and we would expect, if the analog holds, a gap down and rally tomorrow. Ultimately we would top in the 1420s (a double top or slightly higher top - remember I have us in a B wave; that's allowed) around August 9.
A sustained break of the green line, preferably with a retest, would heavily damage the bullish case. A break and retest of the thick cerulean line would essentially definitively indicate that at least a C wave down (if not a 3) would be underway.
