Wednesday, July 25, 2012

July 25, 2012 Postmarket

The SPX went nowhere today.  Seriously.  It started up, then went down, then went up again, then went down again, ultimately coming to a stop a fraction of a point below where it started.


The most immediately bearish count is, of course, that the correction is already over in which case we will likely gap down tomorrow (or fall tomorrow quickly in the early going), beyond 1325 and possibly beyond 1309.  I would have liked the correction to have gone a few points further (1348.55 is the 38.2% logarithmic retrace from 1380), but what the heck.

An alternative count is that the correction is not yet finished.  In this case, we likely just finished up Micro [A] of "b/x" (i.e. a flat or a double zigzag) and are now in Micro [B], with [C] to come down to about 1330, and then up.  Ultimately this would likely end Minuette (ii) sometime on Friday.

It should also be noted that my 1348.55 target is also the top of the head and shoulders range (blue line on below chart).  It could be that my "a" is really a "w", my "b" an "x" and my "c" the [A] of "y".


If that breaks, 1353.25 is the next target, both the middle of the previous 3rd wave and the top of the previous 4th wave.  If the upper black line is breached, the superbull and potentially hyperinflationary counts have to be taken into consideration.  Stocks may rise, but there is nothing bullish about hyperinflation.